Kurt Unger, de nuestra División de Economía, acaba de publicar un paper en
NBER con importantes resultados.
El bottomline: los municipios con mayor migración están "creciendo" más
rápido que los de menos migración (gracias a las famosas remesas); y como
los de baja migración son más ricos, el resultado es convergencia entre
ambos grupos. Son buenas noticias: a pesar de sus políticos, el país avanza
con el sudor de su gente.
Regional Economic Development and Mexican Out-Migration
by Kurt Unger - #11432 (ITI LS)
This paper shows evidence of positive effects in the economic
development of sending communities in Mexico due to migration. The principal
hypothesis of this study is that remittances, knowledge and experience
acquired by migrants during their migratory cycle, can be translated into
larger economic growth in the out migration municipalities. This result
presupposes that Government could create complementary incentives to take
advantage of profitable activities. Economic and migration data for each
municipality is used which allows to associate characteristics of
communities, migratory flows and the effects in profitable activities.
There are three sections. A first section describes the sending
municipalities according to migratory intensity and their urban /rural
nature. The second section analyzes the relation between remittances and
socioeconomic conditions of the communities. In a third section the effect
over time is estimated, relating per capita income growth and migratory
The most relevant results are the existence of income convergence over time
high and low migration municipalities in the North and South of Mexico. As
well, we find a positive and significant relation between per capita income
growth and the percentage of households that receive remittances across
communities, both at the country level and
for the northern and southern regions separately.