Optimism and Economic Choice

Este paper explota un excelente proxy de las expectativas de la gente: su
expectativa de vida reportada en encuestas.

Optimism and Economic Choice
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11361
by Manju Puri, David Robinson - #11361 (AP CF)
Abstract:
This paper presents some of the first large-scale survey evidence linking
optimism to major economic choices. We create a novel measure of optimism
using the Survey of Consumer Finance by comparing a person's self-reported
life expectancy to that implied by statistical tables. Optimists are more
likely to believe that future economic conditions will improve.
Self-employed respondents are more optimistic than regular wage earners. In
general, more optimistic people work harder and anticipate longer
age-adjusted work careers. They are more likely to remarry, conditional on
divorce. In addition, they tilt their investment portfolios more toward
individual stocks.