Este paper contiene y analiza un panel de datos sobre cónclaves recientes...
Excelente cita:
"The Germans are on his side as will be the Spanish tomorrow because Franchi has now sided with Pecci; Howard, who up to now has voted for Simeoni, will vote for Pecci tomorrow; as I’m sure Your Eminency is aware, Bilio declared to Barolini that if he were to be elected he would not accept, for he considers it a heavy burden; Monaco and Randi will continue to vote for Martinelli; Franzelin likes Monaco, but he is wasting his time: Your Eminency, you must accept the truth, God has chosen Pecci."
The Papal Conclave: How do Cardinals Divine the Will of God?
J.T. Toman (University of Sydney)
Version: January 5, 2004
http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/seminars/pegroup/toman.pdf
In modern times, the College of Cardinals have been locked in the Sistine Chapel with the purported aim to divine the Will of God in the election of the Pope. Between 20 and 60 percent of cardinals vote for the same candidate throughout the conclave, depending on the length of the conclave. For those cardinals that change their voting behavior, they are influenced by both the vote counts and the nightly conversations. However, in unifying the cardinals to one winner the dominant force is the observed vote counts.
"The Germans are on his side as will be the Spanish tomorrow because Franchi has now sided with Pecci; Howard, who up to now has voted for Simeoni, will vote for Pecci tomorrow; as I’m sure Your Eminency is aware, Bilio declared to Barolini that if he were to be elected he would not accept, for he considers it a heavy burden; Monaco and Randi will continue to vote for Martinelli; Franzelin likes Monaco, but he is wasting his time: Your Eminency, you must accept the truth, God has chosen Pecci."
The Papal Conclave: How do Cardinals Divine the Will of God?
J.T. Toman (University of Sydney)
Version: January 5, 2004
http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/seminars/pegroup/toman.pdf
In modern times, the College of Cardinals have been locked in the Sistine Chapel with the purported aim to divine the Will of God in the election of the Pope. Between 20 and 60 percent of cardinals vote for the same candidate throughout the conclave, depending on the length of the conclave. For those cardinals that change their voting behavior, they are influenced by both the vote counts and the nightly conversations. However, in unifying the cardinals to one winner the dominant force is the observed vote counts.
2 comments:
interesting paper, I´m not sure the results cast that great of a light on the RCChurch.
dlw
I am not going to be original this time, so all I am going to say that your blog rocks, sad that I don't have suck a writing skills
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